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Future Trends in the Steel Industry: A Comprehensive Overview

Release time:

2025-03-05

Analyze the future development trend of the steel industry from multiple dimensions such as supply and demand pattern, technological innovation, green transformation, and policy environment.

The future development trend of the steel industry can be analyzed from multiple dimensions such as supply and demand pattern, technological innovation, green transformation and policy environment, showing the following characteristics:

Supply and demand pattern: total volume tends to be stable, structural differentiation

1.Total demand fluctuates slightly
Domestic steel demand is expected to drop slightly to 850 million tons in 2025, but the proportion of manufacturing demand will increase to more than 50%, becoming the main support. The demand in the construction industry (about 444 million tons) continues to decline due to the adjustment of real estate, but the demand in infrastructure investment, new energy (wind and solar installation, power grid engineering), high-end equipment manufacturing (ships, automobiles) and other fields has increased significantly.
Global steel demand is expected to increase to 1.758 billion tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with emerging markets and green energy projects contributing to the increase.
2.Supply-side optimization continues to deepen
The capacity control policy continues, crude steel output is controlled at around 1 billion tons, the industry concentration is improved, and leading enterprises such as Baosteel and Ansteel strengthen their market voice through joint reorganization.
The proportion of short-process steelmaking (electric furnace process) is gradually increasing, and may exceed 15% in 2025, meeting the production needs of small batches and high-precision special steels.

Technological innovation: driven by high-end and intelligentization

1.The demand for high-end special steels has exploded
New energy vehicles, robots, aerospace and other fields have driven the growth of demand for high-grade silicon steel, ultra-high strength steel and precision alloy steel. For example, the unit price of high-precision cutting wire (diameter <0.1 mm) and fatigue-resistant carburizing steel (strength > 1200MPa) required by humanoid robots can reach 2-3 times that of ordinary steel.
The demand for low-temperature steel (such as P690QL2) and corrosion-resistant steel in the field of shipbuilding and marine engineering has increased significantly. Anshan Iron and Steel, Baosteel and other companies have filled the international gap through technological breakthroughs.
2.Accelerated digital transformation
AI technology is applied to production process optimization, solving the "black box" problem of steel manufacturing, and improving production efficiency and product precision. The robot density of key enterprises has reached 65 units/10,000 people, and the penetration rate of intelligent centralized control centers has exceeded 80%.
Industrial Internet platforms promote upstream and downstream collaboration, realize customized production and precise supply and demand matching.

Green transformation: carbon reduction and circular economy are equally important

1.Low-carbon technology breakthroughs
Technologies such as hydrogen-based direct reduction iron (DRI) and hydrogen-rich carbon recycling blast furnaces have entered the commercialization stage. Baowu, Hesteel and other companies are leading the world in the field of low-carbon metallurgy. It is estimated that the proportion of hydrogen metallurgical capacity may reach 5% in 2030.
The ultra-low emission transformation is completed, and 80% of the production capacity will be completed by the end of 2025. The environmental protection cost per ton of steel will be increased to 224 yuan, forcing backward production capacity to withdraw.
2.Resource recycling is strengthened
The utilization rate of scrap steel has increased, and the proportion of short-process steelmaking has increased. The consumption of scrap steel may reach 280 million tons in 2025, reducing carbon emissions by about 150 million tons.
The comprehensive utilization rate of solid wastes such as steel slag and iron-containing dust and mud exceeds 90%, and the circular economy model is gradually maturing.

Policy environment: stabilizing growth and promoting transformation

1.Demand-side policy support
The policy of "stabilizing the property market and expanding infrastructure" continues, and urban village renovation and new energy projects drive the demand for construction steel. The "two new" policies (equipment renewal and old-for-new) stimulate automobile and home appliance consumption, driving the demand for plates.
2.Deepening supply-side structural reform
The capacity replacement policy is optimized, new capacity is strictly controlled, and backward capacity is driven out of business. Hebei Province has put forward the goal of "no increase in output and doubling of output value" to guide the industry to transform towards high value-added.

Challenges and opportunities

Challenges: The demand for traditional construction steel continues to decline, and the fluctuation of raw material costs (such as high iron ore prices) compresses profit margins, and some companies face loss pressure.
Opportunities: There are structural opportunities in high-end special steel, green and low-carbon technology, digital services and other fields. Leading companies consolidate their advantages through technical barriers and scale effects.

Conclusion
The steel industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade", and the core of future competition lies in technological innovation, green and low-carbon capabilities and industrial chain synergy efficiency. Companies need to focus on the research and development of high-end products (such as high-quality steel and steel for new energy), accelerate digitalization and low-carbon transformation, and at the same time seize export opportunities brought about by manufacturing upgrades and global green infrastructure to achieve a leap from "quantity" to "quality".